The Chinese "nuclear triad" and the message to the US
The test of a ballistic missile launched from a Chinese submarine into the south Pacific provided Beijing's leadership with the opportunity to evaluate one of the most complex and sensitive operational capabilities of the country's evolving nuclear deterrence, according to analysts and diplomats. The capacity for command, control, and communication with nuclear-powered submarines that must operate silently and undetected constitutes one of the greatest challenges for any nuclear power. For China, Reuters notes, the issue holds particular significance as the political leadership of the Communist Party places immense weight on the political reliability and control of the armed forces. "This aspect would certainly be one of the key elements evaluated, beyond the actual technical capabilities of the missile and the submarine," stated Collin Koh, a security expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. "There are still challenges, but it appears they are approaching an operational strike capability. They are likely trying to demonstrate that even if they cannot reach the continental United States, they could strike Guam and Hawaii," he added.
The test that caused concern in the region
China launched a ballistic missile from a submarine on Monday, which carried a dummy warhead and landed in the south Pacific. Regional powers reacted with concern, while the United States reported that it was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Chinese state media and officials characterized the test as a "routine military exercise," arguing that it had no specific target or recipient and was conducted in a professional manner. China's Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to queries from Reuters. The test constituted the most significant Chinese long-range missile test since September 2024, when the People's Liberation Army launched a weapon into the south Pacific from a mobile launcher on Hainan Island in the South China Sea.
Submarines form the core of Chinese nuclear strategy
Monday's missile was launched from one of China's six Type-094 nuclear-powered submarines, known as SSBNs, according to analysts and academics. Chinese state media reported that it was a strategic ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), without specifying its exact class. SSBNs are large nuclear-powered submarines designed to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles equipped with nuclear warheads. Military attachés and analysts in the region consider the operations of Chinese SSBNs, which are based out of Hainan, to be one of the most closely monitored elements of the modernization of the Chinese military. The reason is their vital importance to China's "second-strike" capability. If nuclear submarines can operate without being detected, Beijing retains the capability to retaliate even in the event that its land-based nuclear forces are destroyed by an adversary's first strike. This is considered highly critical for China, which still officially maintains the policy that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.
American monitoring of Chinese submarines
The US and its allies periodically attempt to track Chinese submarines using warships, underwater sensor networks at strategic choke points, and P-8 Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft, which possess advanced detection systems. These operations are expected to increase as China strengthens its underwater capabilities. A Pentagon report in 2022 stated that China had begun conducting near-continuous deterrence patrols with its SSBNs. The United States, Russia, France, and Britain have possessed a corresponding capability for decades, while India is also developing its own nuclear-powered submarines.
The Xi Jinping factor and control over nuclear weapons
A study on the Chinese nuclear arsenal published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists noted that although American officials have not stated publicly that Chinese SSBNs actually carry live nuclear weapons during their patrols, some have conveyed this assessment privately to researchers. The study highlights that Xi Jinping's purges within the Chinese military—including leading figures of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force—raise questions about whether nuclear warheads would be handed over to the armed forces under normal circumstances.
The Chinese "nuclear triad" and the message to the US
Although not all details regarding the exact location of the launch or the type of missile have been made public, the ability of Chinese SSBNs to operate far from the country's coasts without being detected is expected to be at the center of strategic analysis. The Type-094 submarine is anticipated to be replaced in the future by a more advanced and stealthier version currently under development. To reach the continental United States with its most advanced submarine-launched missile, the JL-3, a Chinese submarine would have to move beyond the South China Sea into the western Pacific, increasing the risk of detection by adversary naval forces. The JL-3 is believed to feature multiple warheads and was showcased at Beijing's military parade in September 2025. Its range is estimated to be approximately 10,000 kilometers. Despite the uncertainties, the Chinese newspaper Global Times argued that the launch proved the country is continuously reinforcing its "nuclear triad": the capability to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea, and air. "This will compel external forces and their allies to abandon attempts to coerce China through maximum military pressure or preemptive strikes, fundamentally reducing the risk of a large-scale conflict," the newspaper's editorial distinctively stated.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών